Retail Delivery - China | Statista Market Forecast

The Reail Delivery market in China is expected to reach a revenue of US$185.20bn by 2024.
This projection indicates an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 12.41%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$295.70bn by 2028.
Additionally, the number of users in the Reail Delivery market is projected to amount to 524.2m users by 2028.
The user penetration rate is expected to increase from 26.8% in 2024 to 35.6% by 2028.
Furthermore, the average revenue per user (ARPU) is anticipated to be US$472.70.
In terms of global comparison, United States is expected to generate the highest revenue in the Reail Delivery market, with US$185.20bn in 2024.
On the other hand, United States is projected to have the highest user penetration rate, reaching 30.7%.
China's retail delivery market is experiencing a surge in demand due to the rise of e-commerce giants like Alibaba and JD.com.

Definition:

The Retail Delivery market includes the delivery of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumable products carried out directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Delivery is typically scheduled for same-day but there are also other possibilities.

Additional Information

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Operates own warehouse
Has products on the balance sheet
Uses own or third-party delivery

Phone orders
Deliveries online through ghost warehouses (e.g., Getir, Flink, Gorillas)
Deliveries online of preportioned recipe boxes (e.g., HelloFresh)
Online orders where a personal shopper picks and delivers grocery items (e.g., Instacart)

The Retail Delivery market of Online Grocery Delivery dominates the market. Retailers were able to scale their online channels rapidly during the COVID-19 lockdowns to meet the exponential rise in customer demand. Retailers still need to look for ways to attract more customers to keep up with the competition. Walmart for example introduced a service where the delivery driver would deliver groceries to the customer’s fridge.

The growth rates of 2022 will see a slight decline in comparison to 2020 and 2021 due to the uncertainty of macroeconomic factors. Although China has a steady lead over the rest of the regions, the U.S. market shows strong growth signals in our forecast. This is due to the high demand and rapid rise of grocery spending per capita.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Digital market, in a PDF format.